The Buffett Indicator

The Buffett Indicator

November 10, 2020 – Please, please, please, PLEASE understand the stock market is not without risk.

The stock market has had a phenomenal run over the course of the past decade. Fortunes have been made, lost for a bit, then made again.

If you’re among those who have benefited from this prolonged bull run, CONGRATULATIONS! You beat the house in Vegas.

Alas, human nature is such that prolonged stock market success often lulls investors into a false sense of security. They remain solidly invested even when certain indicators suggest it may be wise to pull back.

And just like the gambler who can’t walk away from the table when they’re ahead, bad times may lie ahead.

Now is one of those times. It’s actually been here for the better part of a year.

The Buffett Indicator

Warren Buffett has few peers when it comes to investing success. Using a combination of skill, common sense, patience, and a shrewdness which belies his folksy nature, Buffett has amassed a personal fortune and personifies wealth building acumen.

Because his words carry so much weight, the Buffett Indicator, which has historically pinpointed when stocks may be overvalued and could come crashing down, is something everyone with market exposure should pay close attention to and can be simplified as follows:

Market Capitalization/Quarterly GDP

The higher the Buffett Indicator number, the greater the risk.

Comparing Historical Buffett Indicators

According to this graph from DQYDJ.com, the Buffett Indicator hit 2.227 during Q2 2020. That’s really high! Throw in a global pandemic and stimulus spending over the past ten months and the market would seem even more precarious.

For the same reason athletic teams review film of games already played, sometimes backward glances can help shed light on how to prepare for the future. For perspective and to see what may lie ahead, let’s pick a few select periods starting when the nonagenarian Buffett was a spry 30-something year old investor:

Quarter Year – Buffett Indicator – DJIA – Years until DJIA returned

Q4 1968 – 1.022 – 6,529 – 25 years

Q1 2000 – 1.886 – 15,526 – 6.9 years

Q2 2007 – 1.524 – 16,747 – 6 years

Q1 2020 – 2.160 – 29,276 – ???

IF the market does tank, are you comfortable waiting six, seven, or even twenty-five years until the markets return to their pre-crash levels? That’s a lot of cash you’ll be burning.

Remember the Roaring Twenties? Of course, you don’t. Unless you’re 105 or older! That decade was one of exponential economic growth and widespread prosperity. It was an amazing time for many. Until it wasn’t. Once the bubble popped, the Great Depression arrived sending stock values plummeting along with the economy which took more than twenty-five years to recover from!

Your Safest Bet

So, if you are in or near retirement and are still fully invested in the market, do yourself a huge favor and GET OUT NOW! At least partially. You don’t need to completely eliminate your market exposure, but converting some of your portfolio into a stream of safe, secure, tax-advantaged cash flows will go a long way toward preserving what you’ve earned and protecting yourself from potentially catastrophic loss.

If you are about to receive money from a personal injury settlement, here’s another little bit of Warren Buffett wisdom worth sharing. Structured settlements remain the safest, surest choice for anyone ready to settle their insurance claim. Some options even include stock market-driven upside potential without the downside risk.

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